A dry day is expected in Ohio with a minor disturbance causing light snow in the Great Lakes region. Clouds will dominate, and flurries may occur in northern counties. Southern areas will likely remain dry with a chance of sun breaking through. The week’s second major storm complex is anticipated to bring significant moisture, mainly as rain, with possible snow in NW Ohio on Friday morning. Colder air follows, leading to windy conditions and bitter cold over the weekend. The upcoming week is expected to continue with arctic air, below-normal temperatures, and a chance of light snow midweek.
Overview of the Recent Winter Storms
Earlier in the week, the first major winter storm affected the Plains and the Midwest, bringing heavy snow, blizzard conditions, rain to alleviate drought, and severe storms in the South and Southeast. The second storm, set for the weekend, is forecasted to follow a track slightly different from the first, potentially resulting in lower snowfall amounts in the Central and Southern Plains. However, the Midwest is expected to experience heavy snow, particularly in the Great Lakes areas. Strong winds could create blizzard conditions in the Midwest, with rain continuing in the Ohio Valley. Severe weather, including strong winds and tornadoes, is anticipated in the South and Southeast.
Impacts and Aftermath of the Storms
After the second storm, a blast of arctic air from the polar vortex is expected, bringing below-zero temperatures to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures may drop below zero as far south as Kansas and as far east as Illinois by January 14. Some models suggest a brief warm-up, while others predict a continued arctic blast. The cold air could set the stage for a third storm system around January 14-16, potentially impacting southern areas, including Texas and the Gulf Coast, with snow and ice.
Detailed Analysis of the Second Storm
The second storm’s track starts in the Texas Panhandle, moving east-southeast through Texas before arcing back up into southeastern Missouri, continuing into Michigan, and through southern Ontario. This track, slightly different from the first storm, may result in varied snowfall amounts. While the Central and Southern Plains may experience less snow, the Midwest, especially the Great Lakes areas, could see heavier snowfall. Northwestern Indiana is currently favored for more than 12 inches of snow. Strong winds in the Midwest could lead to blizzard conditions and drifting snow.
Rainfall and Severe Weather Outlook
Although the fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to be less than the first storm, heavy rain is still predicted in the Ohio Valley, approaching 2 inches. Severe weather is forecasted for the same areas affected earlier in the week, with strong winds and tornadoes posing primary threats.
Polar Vortex Impact and Cold Weather Scenario
The polar vortex, building in Western Canada, is set to pull down harsh arctic air into the Northern Plains, reaching as far south as Kansas and as far east as Illinois. Temperatures are expected to go below zero Fahrenheit, lasting through the middle of the following week. The potential for moderation in temperatures remains uncertain, with some models suggesting a brief warm-up around the middle of the following week before another arctic blast.
Potential for a Third Storm System
The cold air in place could set the stage for a third storm system around January 14-16, with a track potentially impacting southern areas from Texas through the Gulf Coast and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Texas, Oklahoma, the Tennessee Valley, and the Carolinas are being monitored for potential snow and ice storms.
In summary, Ohio can expect a dry day with a minor disturbance, followed by a significant storm bringing rain and potential snow, accompanied by cold temperatures and windy conditions. The aftermath includes a blast of arctic air, setting the stage for a third storm system and prolonged cold weather. The Midwest, Great Lakes areas, and southern regions should remain vigilant for potential severe weather, heavy snow, and freezing conditions.