Public Opinion Survey • Iowa Caucus • Post-Voting Survey • Pre-Voting Survey • Former President Donald Trump

In the inaugural contest of the 2024 election season, former President Donald Trump emerged as the resounding victor in the Iowa GOP Presidential Caucuses, setting the stage for the upcoming New Hampshire primary. Despite the unique nature of Iowa’s caucuses, characterized by neighborhood-style gatherings in around 730 venues, Trump’s dominance was evident across various demographic groups.

The entrance polls revealed that Trump secured the majority of caucus-goers from diverse backgrounds, underlining his broad appeal. Notably, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley found success among those identifying as “moderate” or “liberal,” as well as individuals seeking a candidate with the right temperament and those who acknowledged President Biden’s legitimate victory in the 2020 election.

One notable observation was the unwavering support Trump received from a very conservative electorate in Iowa, as highlighted in the entrance poll analysis. Despite facing criminal charges, 63% of respondents expressed their belief that Trump would still be fit for office even if convicted. A significant 71% of this group voted for Trump, emphasizing the enduring loyalty within the conservative base.

Furthermore, nearly half of the participants identified themselves as part of the “MAGA movement” initiated by Trump, with the former president securing a substantial 76% of their votes. The sentiment among voters was reflective of Trump’s influence, with 66% expressing skepticism about President Joe Biden’s legitimate win in 2020, a belief that influenced 68% of this group to support Trump.

Interestingly, despite minimal time spent campaigning in Iowa, Trump enjoyed the widest projected margin of victory in any contested Iowa Republican caucuses since 1976. The majority of caucus-goers had made up their minds well in advance, with 84% deciding either earlier in the month or even before.

In terms of demographics, 88% identified as conservative, matching previous high points in Iowa caucus GOP entrance polls, and 51% considered themselves “very” conservative. White voters dominated, constituting 97% of caucus-goers, and 51% identified as evangelical white Christians. The prevalence of conservatives and evangelicals was further highlighted by the fact that 58% favored a federal law banning all or most abortions.

Trump’s appeal among conservative voters was particularly evident, as he performed 31% better with conservatives than with moderates. This marked a reversal from 2016, where Trump had a stronger showing among moderates. Trump also secured a significant 61% of “very” conservative voters, indicating a substantial increase from his 2016 performance in this group.

However, Trump’s support among political independents was somewhat lower at 37%, compared to 53% among Republicans. This represented a notable shift from 2016 when there was no significant gap between these two groups.

Examining key issues, the economy and immigration dominated as the top concerns for voters, each cited by 37% and 36%, respectively. Trump easily won over those prioritizing these issues, particularly garnering 60% support among voters focused on immigration. In contrast, foreign policy and abortion, though important, lagged behind with 11% each.

Trump’s appeal also extended to less-educated voters, winning 65% of those without a college degree, compared to 35% among four-year college graduates. Additionally, Trump maintained a strong support base among evangelical white Christians, winning 53%, a 32-point improvement from his 2016 performance in this group.

 

When considering candidate attributes, the top-cited preferences were someone who “shares my values” and “fights for people like me.” Trump secured 41% support among those valuing shared values, a significant increase from the 5% he garnered in 2016. Furthermore, Trump’s popularity soared to 81% among voters seeking a candidate who “fights for people like me.” In contrast, Nikki Haley resonated well with caucus-goers looking for a candidate with the “right temperament,” winning 62% in this category.

Reflecting on historical context, the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses showcased Trump’s unparalleled dominance, a contrast to the closely contested 2016 caucuses where Texas Sen. Ted Cruz edged out Trump. Cruz’s success in 2016 was attributed to strong support from very conservative caucus-goers, those prioritizing shared values, and white evangelicals. Trump’s victory in 2016 was driven by his appeal to voters focused on immigration, moderates, and those less aligned with white evangelicals.

In summary, Donald Trump’s triumph in the Iowa GOP Presidential Caucuses reaffirms his political influence and widespread appeal, setting the stage for a challenging but promising journey through the 2024 Republican primaries. As attention turns to the New Hampshire primary, Trump’s competitors, including Nikki Haley andRon DeSantis, are positioning themselves to secure the crucial second-place spot and build momentum in the GOP race.

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